New Delhi: Moody’s Analytics revised its calendar year (CY) 2025 growth forecast for India. The rating agency slashed India’s growth forecast to 6.1%, lowering it by 30 basis points from its March projection.
‘Although US President Donald Trump has just declared a 90-day freeze on most of the harsh tariffs announced a week ago and applied a 10% blanket tariff in their place, the April baseline represents the economic toll they will have should they eventually go ahead in full,’ Moody’s Analytics said in a note.
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The Trump administration last week imposed a 27% reciprocal tariff on Indian goods, claiming the South Asian country levies an average of 52% on US imports Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, India, South Korea, Japan, Indonesia and Malaysia were to be subject to new tariffs ranging from 24% to 46% from 9 April. With the exception of China, the latest policy pivot means that all are now looking at a 10% tariff for 90 days.
To meet the National Statistical Office’s revised full-year growth projection of 6.5% for FY25, the Indian economy needs to expand by a steep 7.6% in the January–March quarter.
Meanwhile, India’s real GDP growth forecast for FY2025-26 has been lowered to 6.5% from the earlier projection of 6.7%, by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) during the central bank’s policy review earlier this week. The Asian Development Bank has also recently cut India’s FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.7% from 7%.
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