The verdict of Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan and its after-effects are being closely watched in India as New Delhi keeps an eye on who will succeed him. This has the possibility of heightened adventurism by the Pakistani military.
The government has stayed silent, refraining from even categorising this as an “internal matter”, which is a stock response by the foreign ministry, but the unseating of the Pakistani leader is not a surprise to South Block.
The possibility of political instability deepening in Pakistan cannot be ruled out and, if that happens, India will take on a more defensive posture.
Pakistan watchers point to a long history of Pakistan’s security-intelligence complex using terror to ratchet up tensions and then emphasise the Indian threat and their own indispensability.
Though China is a tested ally and Russia a budding friend, it’s not yet clear how far they will cover for Pakistan.
The party could split and leaders gravitate to Imran Khan’s PTI or Bilawal Bhutto’s PPP, or as former home minister Chaudhary Nisar Ali Khan has been signalling, a rival power centre could come up or another party even.
For PM Narendra Modi, Sharif was once a promise that ceased after Pathankot and Uri terror attacks. India’s Pakistan policy now is best described as benign neglect, officially accompanied by a tougher line on Pakistan-sponsored terrorism.
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