Uttar Pradesh is set to hold the first phase of urban civic body polls on the 22nd of November 2017. The three-phase elections involving more than three crore voters in 75 districts will see votes being cast in newly-created municipal corporations — Ayodhya and Mathura. Here’s why these polls are significant for the incumbent chief minister Adityanath.
1. These polls are being touted as a litmus test for the Adityanath-led BJPgovernment. The outcome of these polls could be seen as a mini-referendum on its performance in the state so far.
2. These polls are equally crucial for the state BJP unit. The party had won 11 out of 13 mayoral seats in 2012 civic polls. It will be interesting to see if any anti-incumbency has crept in since then.
3. Not just for the BJP, these polls are equally important for the Congress, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP). These other parties are hoping for a comeback after their drubbing in the Assembly elections early this year.
4. Though being fought on local issues of comparatively smaller areas, these urban local bodies’ elections are still bigger than assembly elections in 20 of the 29 states in the country, going by the size of electorate expected to exercise its franchise.
5. Although they are not directly related, the impact of these local body polls may be seen on upcoming Gujarat elections. A win in these polls could help either of the two national parties in the fray (Congress and BJP) to carry forward that momentum into Gujarat. And the results of the UP polls could influence Gujarat’s voters.
6. It will set the tone for 2019 elections. A win in UP civic polls would augur well for the winning party. It is often said the party that sweeps UP invariably wins forms government at the center. Since next assembly poll in the state is due only in 2022, these civic polls would be the only poll prior to next Lok Sabha elections to judge which party is leading the race in UP.
7. These elections could pave the way for future political alliances in the state. Alignment of local parties, like SP, BSP, Rashtriya Lok Dal and Apna Dal, for the 2019 general elections could be based on the outcome of these civic polls.
8. The Adityanath government has been hit by a number of controversies ever since it came to power in the state eight months ago. It will be interesting to see if the Gorakhpur hospital tragedy or a rise in cow vigilantism, among other things, have done any harm to the image of the BJP government in the state.
9. The focus in these civic polls will be on key constituencies like Lucknow, Gorakhpur, Ayodhya, and Mathura. If the BJP loses any of these seats, particularly Varanasi, it could be seen as PM Narendra Modi’s failure.
10. The reputation of many national leaders is also at stake in these polls. While Adityanath is spearheading the BJP campaign, the Congress has roped in bigwigs like Ghulam Nabi Azad and Raj Babbar.
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