Modi and the fireworks for the Assembly polls

Christmas came early for BJP with them winning the Assembly elections in both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh yesterday. There is a lot to learn from the party’s success, despite Rahul Gandhi’s very many temple visits and assent the Congress throne. There is, however, another failure: the AAP’s attempt to even capture the attention of the Gujarat folks.

The BJP won 99 seats, the Congress took 77, three went to Independents, including the Congress-backed Dalit activist Jignesh Mevani, two seats were won by the Bhartiya Tribal Party (BTP) of Chhotubhai Vasava and one was bagged by the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

With 49.1% of the vote, the BJP lost 10 percentage points from its 2014 Lok Sabha tally, but gained 1.2 percentage points over its 2012 Assembly performance.

Congress’s win

The Congress formed a rainbow coalition of three youth leaders comprising Patel Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) leader Hardik Patel, OBC leader Alpesh Thakor and Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani. In October, Thakor who belongs to the powerful Gujarat Kshatriya Thakor Sena joined the Congress at a rally in Gandhinagar in the presence of Gandhi.

While the Congress ran the risk of losing all these seats, it chose to rope in Thakor, who was also being wooed by the BJP for a ticket. If Thakor was fielded by the BJP, the battle would have been long over for the Congress as the BJP was planning to pitch him against PAAS leader Hardik Patel to make it a Patels versus OBC battle.

AAP’s cry for help

Of the 30-odd seats that Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP contested in the 182-member Gujarat Assembly election, the party ended up playing an (unwilling) foil in two. In nearly all the remaining seats, the AAP candidates lost their deposits, with some of them even polling votes in two digits.

The three seats where the AAP made its presence somewhat felt are Chhota Udepur, Wankaner, and Bapunagar. In Chhota Udepur, AAP’s Arjunbhai Versingbhai Rathva polled nearly 4500 votes, which was the best performance by any AAP leader in Gujarat, where electoral politics is largely marked by a bipolar contest between the BJP and the Congress.

Moreover, Rathva’s 4500 votes gain significance when one looks at the margin of victory in the Chhota Udepur constituency: the winning Congress candidate, Mohansinh Chhotubhai Rathava, defeated his rival from the BJP, Jashubhai Bhilubhai Rathwa, by merely 1000 votes.

So, back to the election. The entire governance is dependent in the fireworks. And, by fireworks I mean, the proof of development and other major breakthroughs that paved way to people actually seeing what results, being a P.M has brought to the states. In that regard, BJP put out the fanciest and the most high profile firework display in the whole of India’s independence. From Beti Bachao to GST. One could almost be blinded by the bright lights and the fancy colors.  

Almost.