Russia reinforces navy off Ukraine’s coast as war becomes distinct possibility

Over the last two weeks, the Russian Navy has sent naval assets into the crisis zone bordering Ukraine, mostly in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. This is not only one of the largest exhibitions of naval power since the Cold War, but it is also a sign that Russia could attack Ukraine by water; even threatening to do so could pin down hundreds of Ukrainian troops, forcing them to abandon their stations to defend the shoreline instead.

The forces might assault Ukraine with precision cruise-missile strikes and amphibious invasions from as far away as the Pacific Ocean.These cruisers, submarines, and battleships could also represent a threat to Western naval forces, since they have the capability of preventing NATO military participation in the case of a Russo-Ukrainian war, which National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan describes as a “very distinct possibility.”

“We are in a window where an invasion could start at any time if Vladimir Putin decides to command it,” Sullivan told reporters at a White House press briefing on Friday afternoon. “It might start during the Olympics.” (China’s Winter Olympics conclude on February 20.) Sullivan also advised Americans to leave Ukraine within the next 48 hours, but declined to comment on a news report claiming that Russian President Vladimir Putin has already given the go-ahead for an invasion next week.

It If Moscow intends to initiate a war, its presence at sea might deal a significant blow to Ukrainian forces. According to a recent update from H.I. Sutton, a naval authority and creator of the popular Covert Shores blog, Russia has formed a formidable naval force comprised of “surface units from the Atlantic, Pacific, and Baltic fleets.”

Each task force is led by a guided-missile cruiser of the Slava class and one or more accompanying destroyers. One group, centred on the cruiser Marshal Ustinov, is moving east in the western Mediterranean. Another, centred on the Pacific Fleet cruiser Varyag, has recently transited the Suez Canal and is anticipated to remain in the eastern Mediterranean.