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‘It’s either butter or guns for Moscow’; EU foreign policy chief

In reaction to Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and destabilising actions in Ukraine, the EU imposed six sets of sanctions on Russia. The restrictions currently target approximately 1,200 persons and 98 businesses in Russia, as well as a large number of Russian economic sectors. Their efficacy is reinforced by the fact that they have been adopted or equivalent measures have been implemented in over forty other nations. We will have decreased our Russian oil imports by 90% by the end of 2022, and we are also significantly cutting our gas imports. Of doubt, this causes significant challenges for many EU nations and industries, but it is the price we must pay to safeguard our democracy and international law.

Although Russia exports numerous raw materials, it is forced to buy many high-value-added goods that it does not create. For all sophisticated technology, it is 45 percent dependent on Europe, 21 percent on the United States, and just 11 percent on China. Russia’s oil sector is suffering not just from the departure of international companies, but also from the difficulties of gaining access to sophisticated technology such as horizontal drilling. To sustain aviation traffic, Russia will have to pull the majority of its aircraft from service. In addition, there is a loss of access to financial markets, a detachment from important worldwide research networks, and a substantial brain drain.

Will Vladimir Putin change his strategic calculations as a result of this? Probably unlikely in the near future, because his activities are not primarily motivated by economic rationality. However, by forcing him to choose between butter and firearms, the penalties bind him in a vise that is progressively tightening. Russian and Ukrainian sanctions on African countries that rely on Russian and Ukrainian wheat and fertilisers would have no effect on food supply to Africa, according to Russia’s UN envoy Josep BorrellĀ . Ukraine is unable to export wheat due to the Black Sea embargo and devastation caused by Russian aggression.

The actual solution to the world’s energy and food markets is to cease the war. Respect for sovereign territorial integrity and the prohibition of the use of force is not Western or European norms. Russia is blatantly disregarding them. ‘Accepting such a breach would open the door to worldwide jungle law. The transition to a European power, which I have advocated for from the start of my term, is critical. We’ve started to go from intention to action by demonstrating that Europe can respond when provoked’. Economic sanctions are now at the heart of our reaction, since we do not want to go to war with Russia. They are already beginning to have an effect and will do so even more in the coming months.

Credits; WION

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