According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon is anticipated to reach Kerala around June 4. This year, a slight delay is expected in its onset, as the southwest monsoon typically arrives in Kerala by June 1, with a standard deviation of about 7 days. The Met office stated, “The southwest monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed. The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on June 4 with a model error of 4 days.” Comparatively, the monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 29 last year, June 3 in 2021, and June 1 in 2020.
The onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala serves as a significant indicator of the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season across the Indian mainland. Despite evolving El Nino conditions, the IMD had previously announced that India is expected to experience normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season.
Rainfed agriculture plays a critical role in India’s agricultural landscape, with 52 percent of the net cultivated area relying on this method. It contributes to approximately 40 percent of the country’s total food production, making it an essential contributor to both India’s food security and economic stability.
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