New research suggests that extreme drought and heat events in Europe could occur much earlier and more frequently than previously anticipated. Published in Communications Earth & Environment, the study indicates a more than 10 percent probability of experiencing two consecutive years of severe heat and drought crises in Europe between 2050 and 2075. This is a significant shift from the earlier belief that such climate crises might unfold by the end of the 21st century. The study even highlights the possibility of a mega-drought, where extreme heat persists for five consecutive years.
Attributed to climate change, these extreme weather events, including droughts, heatwaves, floods, and fires, can result in substantial socio-economic damage. The impact of increased variability in the North Atlantic system on such events in Europe remains uncertain. The research, led by Laura Suarez-Gutierrez and her team, explores the potential occurrence of end-of-century heat and drought stress in Europe, considering the role of North Atlantic variability. Focused on a moderate climate scenario, projecting a warming of approximately 2.25°C by the century’s end, the study employed 100 simulations using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble climate model.
Already, climate change-induced heatwaves and droughts are significantly affecting European farmers. The increased risks for the food system, ecosystems, and human health due to higher warming levels are a growing concern. Southern European countries like Italy and Portugal are experiencing the burden of the climate crisis, with farmers incurring additional costs for crop maintenance, leading to reduced profits. While England may not face prolonged extreme heat like southern European countries, farmers are concerned about frequent heavy flooding. The worsening climate crisis has also contributed to increased suicide rates among farmers in countries like France, with a recent survey revealing a rate 20 percent higher than the national average.
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