Paytm’s share price exhibited signs of recovery on Thursday, although it remained the poorest performer in the BSE500 pack. During an analyst meet, Paytm revealed its intention to scale down monthly disbursements in the small-ticket ‘postpaid’ segment, prompting some brokerages to adjust target prices.
Shivaji Thapliyal, Head of Research at Yes Securities, expressed skepticism about Paytm’s transformation narrative, raising questions about the company’s ability to convert a significant proportion of its overall customer base into loan customers in the long run. Thapliyal emphasized concerns about the impact on profitability as Paytm shifts its focus from a payments-centric model to a loan distribution-focused approach. Yes Securities had a “Sell” rating on Paytm at the time of its IPO and currently maintains a less-than-bullish ‘ADD’ rating on the stock.
Contrary to recent speculations, Motilal Oswal clarified that Paytm has not lost lending partners. The company affirmed its association with seven NBFC partners for loan distribution and outlined plans to integrate one large bank and two large NBFCs by Q4FY24 and Q1FY25. Motilal Oswal suggested a target of Rs 1,025 ($12.30) on the stock and adjusted disbursement estimates for FY24/FY25, anticipating a calibrated approach in the post-paid segment. The brokerage valued Paytm at 20 times FY28E EBITDA, factoring in a discount rate of 14% to FY25E.
The adjustments in target prices and concerns about Paytm’s strategic shift underline the evolving landscape for the digital payments platform as it navigates challenges and adjusts its business approach. The market’s response to these developments, as reflected in share prices, remains a key aspect to monitor in the coming days.
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