A recent study published in The Lancet journal has unveiled India’s notable decrease in fertility rates spanning the past seventy years. The research indicates a substantial drop in India’s fertility rate from nearly 6.2 in 1950 to just under 2 in 2021. Projections suggest a further decline to 1.29 and 1.04 by 2050 and 2100, respectively, aligning with global trends.
Globally, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has seen a similar downward trajectory, falling from over 4.8 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021. Forecasts anticipate a continued decrease to 1.8 and 1.6 by 2050 and 2100, respectively. Despite a rise in livebirths from approximately 93 million in 1950 to 129 million in 2021 worldwide, the number is projected to decline, with India witnessing a decrease from over 16 million to 13 million by 2050.
While fertility rates decline globally, the study underscores persistent challenges in many low-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. These regions are expected to grapple with high fertility rates, leading to a demographically divided world. Moreover, there will be a notable shift in the distribution of livebirths, with low-income countries contributing significantly more to global livebirths, almost doubling their share from 18% to 35% between 2021 and 2100.
The researchers emphasize the profound implications of these demographic shifts on economies, geopolitics, health, and the environment. They stress the need for innovative solutions to address challenges posed by ageing populations and call for comprehensive approaches, including economic policies stimulating growth, social security reforms, and improved access to education and contraceptives for women.
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